I had a chuckle on thoughts the JV could be just a big carrot - to get the off takers with equity in hand to close and they could miss out - along with Albos strategic stockpile.
Additionally management aware another missed timeline would not be appreciated by the market. Throw a bone of a JV!
The global RE supply chain security circumstances are at peak levels - as they stated in quarterly in detail - yet they can not close off take with equity attached. Aus Gov doing all the heavy lifting - ARU still can not close off take and equity - say investors are sitting on their hands! Well Hyundai surely aren't - our largest off taker - significant off taker are full steam - as is Korean Gov - German Gov - EU and US up a creek without a paddle and here ARU are - relying on our gov substantially.
DC has been saying right place - right time for a very long time - the missed FID "again" reflects poorly. He has already played the new enquiries/opportunities card previously on FID delays.
If ARU can not close the small 14% of off take with the critical equity attached - unsure how they can maximize shareholder value with a JV.
Highly probable SHORTS will cease the day again on yet more delays - more talk and more expenditure leaking (recall post Dec 2024 FID any remaining cash was to be directed to project development) - that's gone and here we remain - a lousy 14% of off take from making all binding - but more seriously no equity forthcoming - except the Gov 200 million that was to unlock other equity over 3.5 months ago when announced. Just how much equity do they anticipate from 14% remaining off take - Hyundai it was suggested could put up some but are in no rush.
Lynas will capitalize on this - as they have advised in discussions with off take to SK - US and others. US can deal with Lynas Texas plant - they don't need ARU dragging the chain - Lynas have it all - the products - the IP - the concentrate from Mt Weld/Kal that was to feed Texas.
I'm not sold on this delay - JV BS clearly.
ARU Price at posting:
20.3¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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