Another solid quarter for the most hated telehealth stock in the world.
Positives:
- Great to see guidance re-iterated to be EBITDA profitable next quarter. New management credibility rising with consistently meeting their forecasts put out to the market.
- 21% YoY growth in activated lives and 11% YoY growth in eligible lives is a good leading indicator for the next leg of growth. Those new patients might take 1-2 quarters to be onboarded fully / require a telehealth consult, but they should use the service sometime in 2024.
- Patients seem to enjoy using the service. Highest ever quarter of repeat patient % at 77% and reviews online seem to be overwhelmingly positive on an aggregate level.
- Bankruptcy risk is materially reduced now with 1) extinguishing the AXA loan via con note offering and 2) getting the business towards cash break-even. Should see a material re-rating as risks of future cap raisings / going concern become lower and lower.
Concerns:
- Consult volume has dropped QoQ the last few quarters. Likely due to AXA pulling back on marketing but possibly the start of a concerning trend.
- Dilution is a major concern from conversion of the con note, but that's more of a longer-term problem.
When do we think the business will re-rate? Seems hard to believe the business will trade on <0.5x LTM revenue forever, particularly if we get a few back-to-back quarters of EBITDA profitability.
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