Can you point me to the relevant announcements re PV13 reserves or give a summary of how you determined it? I'm sorry to have to ask but I'm afraid I am not following them as closely as previously due to family commitments.
I'm not doubting your maths - just looking for context.
The reserves upgrade issue is an interesting one as it's different for both PV and Mereenie. At Mereenie they were looking to upgrade 2C in the Stairway to 2P. If WM26 had been successful and followed by a second successful well, they actually probably could have upgraded a substantial portion of the 120-odd PJ of 2C to 2P, because the gas was already discovered (by previous wells targeting the Pacoota) and just needed proof of commerciality.
But at PV they needed to actually discover new compartments of gas. Which PV13 did but unfortunately it can only see a limited volume so that's all they can book, and 9 PJ sounds reasonable for that - although I'm still surprised because it's still a bit early to really know what the well will do until it's been on decline for a few months. CTP already has a good lesson on the importance of that from Surprise, and PV13 is even harder to analyse because it's maxxed out the wellhead so decline isn't evident yet.
So that 9 PJ could very well change in the not too distant future.
But that's why the reserves upgrade number appears so underwhelming compared to the spruik you quoted. In terms of PJs of 2P, the wrong well came in. But to me it doesn't mean PV13 was a disappointment. At least not yet. It may still Surprise us (in both senses of the word).
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