Of course the market will shrug - CTP is doing exactly what it said it would do. Generate decent cashflow and use it to pay down debt. Nothing to get excited about in there.
The real damage was done in the failure of the company to mature brownfield reserves as you pointed out. PV13 was a great result, but the rest of PV had its reserves upgraded ahead of the restart, then promptly downgraded again back to roughly what they were under Magellan. That's very damaging for CTP's credibility.
And the WM26 result as severely jeopardised the chance of the Mereenie 2C being upgraded to 2P. I don't consider that WM26 damaged CTP's credibility in the way the PV debacle did, as it was worth a shot, though some investors have voiced concerns about the second Mereenie well not being delivered. Personally I'm fine with how it was handled, but it's still a large chunk of potential 2P that's looking very unlikely.
All in all, CTP is being valued on its current reserves, which IMO are worth around 20c, with a bit of a risk discount for (justifiable) scepticism. Macquarie's bid would have been made hoping they could take advantage of brownfields reserves upgrades, and they must feel they dodged a bullet that the bid was rejected. I, personally, voted against it because I had hope for the reserves upgrades which I calculated would value CTP somewhere around 30c.
So the only hope IMO for a serious re-rate is going to be exploration success at Dukas or Range. Dukas is a low COS but the blue sky is huge, Range is a high COS of at least some 2P reserves but it'll be a high cost development and the upside is limited by the size of the block.
In the meantime CTP is doing the right thing using NGP cashflow to pay down debt to get the company into a healthier financial position. Upside is hard to find, and the only reason I haven't sold out is because I think the downside is limited too, as the current price reflects the existing 2P reserves and production. The market is giving zero value to Dukas or Range.
