CTP

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5.3¢ central petroleum limited

Ann: Quarterly Activities Report & Appendix 5B, page-6

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davincirchrd

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30/01/21

13:44

Post #: 50569738
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Originally posted by psi81: ↑

A few disorganised thoughts:

- quarterly looks good but most of that net cash inflow is from the prepayment, probably a bit over $20M. Good for now but we'll have to produce and deliver that gas for free down the track. Future cashflow will also reduce when they sell down the producing fields.

- Reading between the lines, it seems Dukas will be abandoned and they will drill a new well? That's not unexpected as the pressures involved may have violated the kick tolerance of the existing well. I'm not sure what circumstances they are referring to when they say "Central can be carried for the first $3 million of its share of the cost of the Dukas-1 follow-up well in certain circumstances" but it sounds to me like Central will probably have to pay their full share of the well. It may be that CTP are only entitled to a carry if they sidetrack the original well - we will find out I guess.

- PV-13 still delivering - Palm Valley field apparently hasn't declined at all this quarter, it was 9 TJ/d capacity at the end of last quarter and is still at 9 TJ/d now. Had to smile at the statement that PV-13 "is declining slower than first anticipated, indicating the horizontal well is accessing more reservoir volume than initially apparent" - that is classic Palm Valley behaviour and is IMO probably not more reservoir volume but the tight gas support kicking in. The high gas rates come from the fracture network, and decline fairly quickly but it is a dual porosity system, the matrix porosity kicks in and provides pressure support that can go for years and years. It takes time for the gas to work its way out of the matrix into the fractures because it's such tight rock, which means that if you try to do a decline analysis on the early production you're just seeing the fractures emptying before the tight gas support is apparent. This could plateau for years now and I reckon there might be a reserves upgrade in PV's future.

- Mereenie's capacity on the other hand is really starting to decline quite noticeably and will probably be under 30 TJ/d by the end of this quarter. It's not really critical at the moment as CTP's gas sales are lower but they will really need to get these recompletions and the two new wells online before they can return to anywhere like their 2019 volumes.

- Pleasantly surprised to see a partner is on final due diligence for the Amadeus program (as I said, the farm-in market has been very difficult) and I wonder who it could be. I don't imagine a major would be too interested in the producing fields but a junior who might be interested in the fields isn't going to have the capital available for the drilling program. So perhaps it's someone out of left field, like an infrastructure group or end-user, like IPL was for Range.

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Hi psi, you are spot on with your thoughts, like your interp on Palm Valley, it's going to be an interesting year and a half, finally may we see some positive movement?

CTP Price at posting: 14.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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