CTP central petroleum limited

$10/GJ was quoted in the annual result webinar update in Oct...

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    $10/GJ was quoted in the annual result webinar update in Oct 24.
    https://centralpetroleum.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/ctp-annual-results-update-replay-2024-10-01-1.mp4

    Worth noting the recent MST valuation estimates for FY25 don't include the uplift in the current drilling campaign, which should add close to 1PJ/pa and more closely aligned to MST FY27 production numbers (see below). That's a good deal of cash coming through to add to our $25m cash balance, so $0.26 per share is more aligned to fair value and something the market will recognise as they earn into the NT GSA.

    IMHO the other items not priced into the current share price:

    • Funding / risk appetite on further drilling across the Amadeus in 2025/6 - we'll likely have over $50m in cash at the start of FY26, giving plenty of options on executing on the long standing exploration plan, potentially without the need of a JV partner (eg Dukas)
    • Political change - If the Libs come into power this year there will be a seismic change in the encouragement of gas and pipeline projects. This is where the Amadeus Moomba Gas Pipeline (AMGP) comes back into play, targeting 80TJ/d to supply the east coast. This is a real possibility, particularly with good Mt Kitty, Dukas or Zevon campaigns planned for 2025/6.
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6788/6788858-9626203921e620a88c26bd8bb3fd55ac.jpg
    Last edited by numeraire: 06/02/25
 
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