Thanks, I'd missed that info from the CFO. If anyone doesn't...

Thanks, I'd missed that info from the CFO. If anyone doesn't have time to listen to the whole thing, the key info is from the 7"40' mark until 10"40'.

I think we've got a real opportunity here. The market hasn't woken up to how much of a gamechanger this actually should be, and CTP has such a long history of overpromising and underdelivering that I can well understand why. And up to now, CTP was generating enough cashflow to pay down debt and build a small net cash but not much more than that. But there are a series of events that are all about to kick in that are going to act together and should significantly alter the situation.

1. Blacktip's failure has forced the NGP to close, cutting NT off from the east coast market while also cutting its main source of supply, leaving CTP the sole domestic gas source other than diverted LNG.
2. Volume contracted is now firm and 100% NT so CTP is not affected by periodic outages of NGP - sales volume should stabilise and remove the money pits that appeared in FY24
3. Revenue for NT sold gas has increased from ~$6/GJ a couple of years ago to ~$10 (as per CFO in this presentation)
4. Transport costs have been slashed from ~$5/GJ to get to Wallumbilla to 40c/GJ to get to Darwin. This combined with the revenue increase could double the sales margin per GJ
5. Pre-sold gas is fully delivered, overlifted gas will be fully delivered in May 2026, after which cashflow is to increase by $11M pa ON FY23 NUMBERS - which taking the previous points into account should be closer to $16M pa ON TOP of the significant cashflow increase provided by the existing production
6. Up to 6 TJ/d new production from these two new wells which is not modelled by MST's report which will also add extra cashflow

I haven't done the calculation, I'll wait and see what MST say in their next update, but the cumulative effect of all these should be a massive increase in cashflow, assuming Blacktip's development well currently drilling doesn't significantly alter the situation. In my 20 years as a geologist don't think I've ever prayed so hard for a duster!