I think the (hopefully imminent) failure of Blacktip plus a...

I think the (hopefully imminent) failure of Blacktip plus a solid quarter showing the current economics of the latest gas contracts would see us head back towards double digits, yeah. But I agree, predicting SP timeframes is a mug's game, all you can do is estimate a fair value and be confident the market will realise that value eventually. Short term voting machine, long term weighing machine.

I doubt we'll see Stairway drilling completed by September, and the main problem with the Stairway is it's so patchy in terms of permeability that any decent certifier (and NSAI are as decent as it's possible to get) will be hesitant to assign much 2P beyond the immediate well drainage area. So you might get a few PJ of 2P from drilling a well - say 5 PJ - but drilling one successful well isn't going to convert all that 2C they currently have assigned to the Stairway into 2P. I do think though that going back over the history of the field and all the tests in the Stairway, if they choose the ones that flowed from the Stairway on DST and put a lateral into it, they should get some pretty good payback. Beyond that it's really impossible to say - you can have the best fracture network going but if those fractures have been mineralised by groundwater (as happened with the last Stairway lateral they tried) then you'll get nothing.

The JV takeover idea is an interesting one. I do think that since they paid significantly more for their current interests than CTP is trading at, they would definitely be considering it. They probably also want to see a solid quarter of results from the new contract first, though.