CTP central petroleum limited

Yes I'd do exactly the same as CTP are doing. The great...

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    Yes I'd do exactly the same as CTP are doing.

    The great advantage for the Mereenie and PV wells is that both fields are already connected to the grid so no further infrastructure is required to get them on production (excepting the plant upgrades which are required anyway). If the PV well can tap into a compartment of PV that has not yet been drained that'd be great.

    Ooraminna is definitely the highest risk of the four, both geologically and because it's not connected so would require a pipeline - although CTP have shown they can handle this by hooking up Dingo on time and on budget, and Ooraminna is no further from Alice than Dingo. But Ooraminna still needs a proper test by a horizontal to try and find the fracture network. I hoped Ooraminna 2 would do that but it didn't, it was deviated but not a proper lateral and it didn't find any fractures.

    The combination of proper fracture modelling (which is a proven science in the Amadeus at PV) and a proper lateral will provide the best chance of success at Ooraminna and while the COS is probably a bit less than 50%, the upside is significant so it's well worth it IMO.

    More generally, I don't think the Australian market has fully grasped how much of an improvement horizontals are over verticals, even fracced verticals. I see this across multiple O&G stocks, including STX and COI as well as CTP. And the incremental cost of going horizontal isn't as much as you might think because so much of the cost of drilling a well somewhere like the Amadeus is the rig mobilisation. Once you're drilling it's not too much more to put in a lateral leg. And for that you might get 5x higher rates from the well, or even 10x in the case of a fractured reservoir.
 
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