you cant just look at the balance sheet in situations like this....

you cant just look at the balance sheet in situations like this. most all the assets are in inventories, much of which is work in progress ie half-mined rutile sitting in a mine in SL. what do you think is going to happen to that material if (or when) SRX puts up the 'care and maintenance' sign? SL is one of the worlds poorest countries, GDP/capital is $1000. speaking with people inside the country, it is well known that the entire site will likely be swarmed and scavenged as soon as SRX turns out the lights. so good luck getting anything close to balance sheet inventory back for foreign investors. the other thing you need to consider is optics - a bunch of rich Australian funds (basically) are not going to be clamoring to maximize recovery from a stranded SL asset that represents a huge chunk of a poor country's GDP. its just bad press.

also you need to keep in mind, there is what $10mm in severance/employee cost on the books that would need to be paid (in any exit/liquidation); also they contracted to sell another 20k at negative margins which will knock what, another $3mm minimum off cash. then they also need to pay back the $4-5mm in FY23 back tax (per the SL government new position on the issue), as well. all told thats about $15-20mm out of your recovery right there.

realistically if you got say 1/3 of the inventory number out here - somehow - that would be a good outcome and no one would complain. that implies about $40mm of gross value in working capital (treating receivables as money good, and payables as needing to be paid), but then you need to take account of the items above and thats how you get to $20-25mm (USD) of final value.

with the market cap today at $18mm, this doesnt look at all attractive given the reality on the ground. maybe at sub $10mm market cap (ie 3.5-4c) you take a shot...but even then its hardly high conviction.

sorry to say but this seems to be the reality of the situation to me.