Doesn't matter if i convince you otherwise, so long as you consider the issue deeply in reaching a position. Is there Chinese subsidies (VAT tax on import RE-feed, export rebates on RE-magnets etc), manipulation of RE prices and market supply, therefore supply and price risk in both directions... absolutely. Is Chinese RE-production uneconomic at current low prices... absolutely not. From the giant ironore cum RE bi-product Inner Mongolian mine Bayan Obo to the plethora of ionic clay hosted production (including imports from Myanmar) they are cheap as chips compared to all but a few mines in the west.
The Japanese bought a majority of Mt Weld production for years after the 2011 China RE-embargo that's true, but they paid market prices and LYC share price was in the toilet most of last decade because of it. LYC was the definition of a zombie RE-producer I speak of, kept alive by cheap, then almost interest free loan continually being rolled forward. Kept Mt Weld ReO coming to Japan, but didn;t help LYC shareholders at all. Look up a site called "The Rare Earth Investor".... new articlee 2 days ago discussing in depth exactly what happened in RE Crisis of 2010-2011 and onwards, how it relates to the current situation (spolier alert... it wasn;t as simple or deliberate as it appeared).
The CCP have and will continue to foster and grow the RE-magnet market they dominate for sure. It's a huge downstream employer, value-add industry, with a multiplier throughout the many other industries that use RE-P-Mags. Why wouldn;t they target a RE-clearing price that keeps RE-P-Mags and the downstream p[roducts like EV motors competitive and growing? A very high RE price only invites over-production and competition like any commodity market, that eventually leads to low prices and margins etc.
I don't think the odds very high China upsets the entire globe and closes down one of it's major export industries with another RE-export ban, attracting a backlash of reciprocal tariffs and trade war, but it's a possibility. Probability imo is steady as she goes, while the west builds out sufficient ex-China Re-mags for critical industries (ie military, bespoke machinery) which doesn't include everyone's EVs for which there are economic alternatives. Subsidies as required, but only the minimum required and only to the most economic RE miners surely. Even politicians understand economics 101... throwing large amounts of subsidies the highest cost mines makes no sense when all the RE-feed west needs can be supplied by new deposits require no or little subsides.
Punting that a high-cost, back end of the cost curve mine gets further subsidised for development is a high-risk gamble for obvious reasons. I don;t like the odds... either Yangi doesn;t get subsidised into final development so shares keep falling, or it does but as a profitless zombie waiting for a Chinese RE-ban price spike that might never happen and shares stay very cheap. There are RE stocks that will outperform HAS under almost any scenario imo.
GLTAH
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