Ann: Quarterly Activities Report - June 2024, page-111

Not sure why you said that in response to my post, maybe it was a mistake, but either way, well done on the trade!

I think most of us expect there to be a lot of volatility in the short term for AGY. Nothing has such a dramatic change in perceived value without it causing volatility. You picked a bounce very nicely, whether that was luck or skill, enjoy the spoils.

The price action we've seen pairs up quite nicely with the comments we see here. AGY has a particularly active chat group, so we get a great insight into the mentality of people on the market. This project is dead, or at best, it's in the sewer for at least a year or two. There's not actually any realistic way to spin this story into anything positive unless you're dishonest. To summarise, the IP is clearly worthless, the plants are near worthless (a very small percentage of the market cap in salvageable material), the product on hand is worth a trivial percentage of the market cap, there's over $10M in cash which pretty much all the company has going for it, but that's still a fraction of the market cap, and it's going to be chewed up by cash burn (JZ, Pablo and friends paying themselves wages is really all the company is doing now). ATL was just burned severely and no one in their right mind would want to fund the 10,000TPA. The plan seems to be to sit there paying themselves big, fat wages and if possible, at some stage when lithium sentiment is booming and the carnage is forgotten, raise capital to build the 10,000TPA plant. Keeping in mind this one should cost the best part of 5x what the last one did, and the capital raising will be done at a massive discount of the 13c the last one was funded at, diluting holders to all heck. If there's any chance of it happening at all (I'm highly dubious of it happening), it will have to be s considerable way into the future, probably at under 1c, and then there's more than two years of waiting until it's finished (by which time the lithium price will have dropped), and then they can try to get it working, like they did with the pilot plant and 500TPA plant. As all the bulls kept telling us, delays etc are inevitable, so we're probably looking at 2028 before there's even a chance that maybe they could think about trying to actually make the plant work. If we're not kidding ourselves, we have to admit that if they thought there was any realistic chance of getting it to work, they wouldn't have abandoned the 2,000TPA plant, they'd want to get it working while they had the money to do it and take advantage of any price increase in the future, rather than do this and guarantee missing it.

Clearly, this company is either going to spend the next few years doing nothing and dwindling away, or diluting shareholders to nothing and maybe, maybe managing to give a return to holders who buy in at 0.5c in 2028 so they can get 1-2c in 2030 or something.

However you try to slice it, it's crazy to be holding for a long term investment in 2024. Considering what's planned for the cash on hand, the fundamental value of this stock is under 1c. But, no stock ever goes drastically up or down without a bouncing off the highs or lows, and the market just can't fathom going from a perceived value of 8c to under 1c within a week. It reminds me of when video libraries became obsolete due to computer technology, and the video libraries selling their old VHS tapes at less than the old rental cost, and some people going crazy and buying them up, only to throw them all away within a year - most people just can't fathom things changing in value too dramatically too quickly.

I see gcar going back to mocking people who are not bullish and throwing around insults... it's really quite a thing to behold when someone is capable of making them look so ridiculous without realising it. I don't mean to be nasty and I'd be more gentle about it, but if he wasn't to attack others and laugh at them after his years of viciousness, he's fair game. It's like going on a camping trip, telling one of the kids not to put his hands in the fire, he tells everyone they're stupid and does it anyway and burns himself, then from hospital keeps telling them they're stupid, builds another fire and puts his feet into it, actually laughing at the people who said he was going to get burned.

Once humans form a belief, they can find it almost impossible to change it, even if that belief is clearly harming them.

A lot of holders won't want to sell, because the entire value of their holding is now about the same at the amount it used to fluctuate intraday. Some will want to increase their holdings, because for a fraction of the price they paid for their initial holdings, they can increase their shares held by multiples. Even if the value just isn't there, some people will make the judgements because of these misleading/irrelevant but convincing metrics.

I can't see myself trading AGY in the next year or two, it's just so far above fundamental value, so I'm not game to risk even a short term trade on it.

Congratulations again on your trade.