I've done some calcs on these forecasted cash outflows and it doesn't look as bad as it reads first up.
The bottom line in my calcs indicate positive Op Cash Flow of >$7.9m and Free Cash Flow of >$4m.
My calcs are based on the following assumptions:
Throughput for June qtr is 87500 t ore based on 1/4 of plant design rate of 350000 t pa.
Net Smelter Return is $310 per ton based on AMI's NSR of $310/t for Measured Resources
Here are my calcs:
87500t x $310 NSR = $27,125,000
less estimated prod costs of $17,283,000
less estimated admin costs of $1,936,000
= + Op Cash Flow of $7,906,000
less estimated Dev costs of $3,578,000
less estimated E&E costs of $250,000
= Free Cash Flow of $4,078,000
Overall, it would be a good result if throughput, grades and recovery all come in around design rates. Surely there will be unders and overs with both the estimates and the design rate achievements? Regardless, the estimated production outflow now has some perspective and looks reasonable at $197.50c per ton at this early stage of production.
Cheers
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