ill ignore the histrionics about a 3.5 drop from entry price.
and waive the fine for over use of exclamation marks
reason for being sold down - well who knows for sure - but like i said - i felt a slight disappointment because its not a home run report and mgt had basically inferred it would be by trumpeting the positive reconciliation data 3 times
so theyve urged investors to be optimistic then fallen short of delivering a'bonanza' quarter
primary shortfall is the march recoveries - 84.5% vs 90% mine plan. they say its clay from hicks transiaitonal ore that wont be an issue next qtr. there's 1million lost to casfhlow as a result and the blowout to AISC
its largely expectation management -a lot of investors probably pencilled in a full 30koz for karouni this qtr - when january and feb were never intended to be full run rate.
ALL THAT SAID the much higher head grade has meant financially they are about where they expected theselves to be in terms of last years mine plan
this is also very similar to BDR yesterday. BDR dropped on some initial disappointment among existing holders - but the new buyers looking ahead to improving outlook bught it back up
wouldnt be surprised to see same with TRY.
Even with some fuzziness in their mgt controls - Karouni looks like making TRY at least $90-100M FCF this year - assuming mgt is right about the recovery issue being
a one off.
Box - its not $250m EV anymore. They just paid $15m off the debt.
Thats the kind of thing that should push later support buying as it works its way into peoples numbers
