cheers @Fredbear2
Some extra rough numbers I felt motivated to work out.
If we take an AISC margin on that 4500 foregone oz estimate of about 1400 per oz, that is about another $6m in earnings that will not show up this year to tack on. So maybe $48m in total costs at AISC level. Then they may need to mine another 1000 kt at a cost of about $5m to get their stocks a bit higher for the next wet period? That $53m total there is about $150 per oz at the midpoint for the full year, but assuming no costs at this stage, for the last 9 months of 272 koz it is 195 per oz. If we crudely add that on to this quarter's AISC, then that is about 1594 per oz for the last 3 quarters. That averages about 1546 for the full year at midpoint.
But with a head grade of 1.15 g/t this quarter increasing to closer to 1.3 g/t over this year, the underlying economics do seem relatively more favourable than 1594 per oz for the last 3q to me. And for the following two years we have no AISC guidance that I have seen.
They said this quarter "Ore mining totalled 2.2Mt during the quarter, down slightly on the previous quarter. Mined grades reduced slightly quarter on quarter to 1.14 g/t Au as mine sequencing delays and a rain event late in the quarter restricted access to higher grade. At the end of the quarter, ore stockpiles decreased to 5.9 million tonnes at 0.72g/t Au (December quarter: 6.2 Mt at 0.74 g/t Au)." Good that the stockpile is higher grade at least.
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