Ninja,
I also agree, AISC is open to whatever the company wants to include and exclude, as in this case where CPDLC and myself differ as the company is not saying and we are left to guess. The capital costs in the upgrade are helping to muddy the waters here as well.
I am pretty much a Piotroski fan myself, yet in looking at mining companies even that does not work overly well. Basically if the commodity is up in price over the year compared to previously then everything scores well in that field, like wise for down years, everything performs poorly. However every now and then something sticks out way above the others, like IGO that scored well despite a down year in most of their metals.
When I invested in MML at $1.74 from memory, I didn't do my homework well enough. I assumed all the cap spending really was on the upgrades and didn't pay enough attention to previous spending on some of the development, counted in investing activities, but a must to get to the next lode of ore, so really part of AISC though not a cash cost. Even when I invested the lower grades had me a little concerned but everywhere I looked, was evidence/talk of just lots of development to get to the 10g/t resource, I took for gospel what I shouldn't have.
I also greatly use directors purchases and sales as well as TA. Looking back now we see that no director bought shares at the super cheap prices between $1.60 and $2 earlier this year. That is a red flag that I didn't look at. Why stick to one set of tools when there are many available?
It was the TA that really saved me, the SP was doing everything wrong screaming sell when I got out at ~$1.65 15 minutes before the June quarterly came out. This company appears leaky so my intuition with the sell signal paid off handsomely in saving the size of the loss.
It's not just the financials on paper that make or break an investment, as they may not paint the true picture of what is happening inside the company, MML is a classic case here. We had a report half way through the June quarter that the new mill was operating at 90-94% recovery, yet when the June quarterly came out, this figure had fallen to an average of 85%, so were we lied to, or did recovery crash in the last 6 weeks of the quarter? I have no idea. However we were not told during that earlier report, that the mill was only operating 5 days a week, a critical ommission that signaled to market participants that not all crucial information was given by management in a timely fashion. Unfortunately many companies are like that.
All I know about MML is that they slashed costs everywhere, yetwere only able to add $2m for the quarter. We know from prior releases of crucial information that the company leaks as the SP direction prior pretty well sums up the news, plus it is at another new bottom today. From the money being spent, against revenues, I just can't see where they will turn a profit, and neither does the market.
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Ninja, I also agree, AISC is open to whatever the company wants...
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