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3.0¢ troy resources limited

Ann: Quarterly Activities Report - September 2015 (Relodge), page-21

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speculator101

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09/11/15

11:20

Post #: 16351858
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Originally posted by speculator101 ↑

Only have a few shares in TRY now, as I have been moving into Australian only gold stocks.

The report is a very complicated one. Some pluses, but mainly minus' IMHO.

Cash balance is way down ($35.7 currently). Especially when $15 million of it is not available for use. They they also closed out US $10 million in hedge gains, which basically only paid for all the losses Casposo made in the quarter (my rough number is they lost US $9 million, and scarily this will probably be similar to the Dec quarter, i.e they are haemorrhaging cash in Argentina) They also paid $10 mil of this $100 million dollar loan, and will have to do so again in Dec quarter (so another -$10 million).
So... 35.7 - 15 locked up, -$10 mil in debt repayments - another possible $5-10 for Casposo plus whatever is spent on the new project commisioning wise =.......?? I am not saying they will do a capital raising, but it looks tight. Dec 31st they will have possibly as little as $5 million in cash with $80 million in debt.

Because of the delays to the new project coming online operations will make no profit this quarter, and I hazard a guess, March quarter will probably break even before things actually get into cash flow positive territory .

Also, I think some will view the exploration results to date as a concern. Sure its early days, but they admit they are still learning. My guess is many are expecting exciting things...

The current gold hedge is not a profitable one either (in the sense they are underwater with it).

Interested to hear more positive views?

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Just wondering if anyone has any differing views on the above numbers?
With the USD POG now down to under $1100, for the next 9 months or so, its a bit irrelevant to TRYs bottom line for now due to their hedge at $1103.

I am wondering, just what would be fair value for TRY in the current market. I think an E/V of around $100 million is fair considering the risks with the company? For me that is an SP of around $0.22.

TRY Price at posting: 27.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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