ADY 4.17% 1.2¢ admiralty resources nl.

Ann: Quarterly Activities Report , page-12

  1. 17 Posts.

    guys, it is obvious there is still an extreme amount of anger and frustration at what happened to ady under the watch of phil thomas.

    however ady is a new beast now, under new leadership and with different prospects. people need to detatch themselves from what happened under phil thomas, and evaluate the company based on its future prospects with JA and not dwell on what could have been had rincon not been given away.

    i do think ady has the potential to reach 10c in the next 12 months.

    the most immediate concern is securing ady's cash position. and in that regard the rights issue is critical. i don't know about you guys, but i took up my full entitlement of 125,000 shares. whether that was a mistake remains to be seen. i am just happy she didn't go into administration when she failed to lodge the annual report on time.

    the most important thing is to pay off the YA debt of $2.7m and the rights issue only has to be 50% subscribed to do that. i believe ady will get a re-rating of sorts if/when that debt is finally paid off.

    and even if the rights issue doesn't raise enough, then they can just issue shares to YA at 1.4 cents which will create an overhang, but will not lead to any more dilution then there would have been under the rights issue.

    i carefully read the quarterly cashflow report and was pleased with the statement "...and is currrently completing a rights issue which will raise in excess of $5m". note the use of the word WILL as opposed to MAY raise in excess of $5m. this potentially indicates that ady is confident of getting the whole $5m which would be an excellent result. or it could just be another example of phil thomas style BS.

    so assuming we get $5m from the rights, and $10m over the next 20 months, then that's $15m of cash effectively in the bank with no debt and with very little overheads (i trust JA to run a tight watch)... and that cash should go a long way.

    so in summary we have a company with $15m of cash and a 423 million tonne iron ore resource with 15 interested parties in doing a jv... all for a market cap of $40m at 2 cents. to me that seems cheap, and if we can knuckle down a good jv with a chinese partner then 10c is definately a probability.

    remember that ady was still able to produce and ship some iron ore under the disastrous phil thomas, albeit negligible.

    imagine what JA can do with good management, planning, sufficient cash and a credible jv partner???

 
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