Ann: Quarterly Activities Report , page-6

Thanks for the reply Hotfire.

A strip ratio of 0.4 would make a massive difference to profitability. Maybe as they get deeper, it will improve?

A may have a copy of that broker report you mentioned. That's where I plucked the $43 pt from.

Without knowing debtor and creditor balances at the beginning and end of the quarter, I think it's impossible to figure out sale price and production costs.

The variable cost may well be $9, but other costs are quite high. I've combined all costs and included them as I just really care about bottom line.

I may have been a little premature with the 'dud' tag, as this quarter's figures would have been hampered by the problems in the first 2 months.

If they can continue the next quarter in the same manner as June, things should look considerably better in 3 months time.

The final quarter for the year should again look good as they'll have triple shifts by the end of it, ramping up to 1.5mtpa equivalent. We probably won't see the full benefit of that until 1st quarter 2012 though.

I still hold. I don't think it can get much lower. My only concern is the performance shares. Once they come into play, if we include the options, then we'll have 480m shares. An offer of $100m is only 21c per share.
Seeing as the Directors will own the bulk of them, they may decide $80m for them is enough and they'll accept the offer. Glad I didn't buy in at IPO.