z,Here's my thinking on it.Current plan 20MT PA x 30+ years =...

z,

Here's my thinking on it.

Current plan 20MT PA x 30+ years = 600MT

They are telling us to expect 1.8 to 2.0 BT in the updated JORC which is huge. With rail capacity of 20MT as per the plan that is 100 years of production as things stand, give or take.

The market doesn't give too hoots about adding tonnage after this point unless it is directly supported by additional transport capacity. The market cares even less about tonnage that is not open cut because it is unlikely to translate into material value in coming decaded. Moreover they are likely to further increase the resource in additional leases for further open cut long before underground even remotely starts looking attractive. I believe this is why they are openly saying they aren't even going to include tonnage that can't be recovered by open cut.

We all know that EERs resource is huge as is its potential value. As we are all accutely aware only the stuff that can actually get to market within a timeframe investors care about is going to count towards the company's value.

Getting 20MT of capacity or at least an assurance and timeframe in which that will occur will rerate this company because it will have a material value. No doubt production will pay for not only the initial investment in rail etc but also the subsequent upgrades which allow the resource to be converted to cash quicker. I therefore believe EERs will have 3 major reratings in coming years. The first upon confirmation of the initial 20MT infrastructure starting. The second upon actual shipping commencing and the third when further transport upgrades are later announced.

Of course there could be a forth which occurs first. That being the updated JORC next month but I don't see any of them having as much relevance as the announcement of the rail link when that occurs.

You are completely right about demand but a good chunk of the market is fixated on what is going to happen this week, this month or this year. Until there is likeihood of cashflow (inwards rather than outwards that it) this will only be attractive to a small minority. Still could go much higher though.