Ann: Quarterly Activities Report, page-14

Did some quick numbers on this quarters report (sales of BRL's equity share):
$42.85m sales revenue, 327k sold = $131.05 per tonne average sale

Comprising:
135.2k exported
= $6.76m EBITDA

122.85k north island domestic
= $3.56m EBITDA

68k south island domestic
= 2.04m EBITDA

Quarterly EBITDA for BRL: $14.02m - and I think this is very conservative, given about half of this is based off a margin per tone of $50, if you look at the average sale price (of $131), and think that thermal coal is probably being sold around $70 NZD, if we then take the 190.85k of domestic production (mostly, if not all, thermal) 190.85k x $70 = $13.36m of revenue - where did the other $29.49m of revenue come from? $29.49m/135.2k - $218.12 per tonne (= $148 USD per tonne - matches up and makes sense given current pricing).

What I am trying to get at is that it is plausible BRL actually achieved DOUBLE the margin expected for their export operation that is stockton... meaning EBITDA, which they unfortunately did not break out, could possibly be $20m+ for the quarter.

It also sounds like production and sales will jump further in the next quarter.  The reason BRL is probably not breaking out EBITDA is due to the media attention it might get - imagine the press that would be received from the government selling an asset for $36m up front consideration, only to see 3 months immediately after the sale over half of it is already paid for?  With a change of government, not that they can do anything, the last thing BRL need is media swamping their mines and in wellington asking questions of the sale process etc.

As they have indicated, (and basic math supports), this is actually a 'slow' quarter, due to rain fall and other seasonal factors - they have reaffirmed 1.6m BRL share of production forecast and an upgrade could always be in the pipeline, as this is still only the 1st quarter.  Interestingly, this quarter was not a quarter of that 1.6m - so the best is still to come - it is amazing the market has not run some basic assumptions for a company that might not just meet the top end of their guidance, being 68m, but could potentially smash it to $80m - and if it was 80m, the price to EBIDTA would be less than 2.5x, yes you read that right: two point five times - unheard of across any industry, and whitehaven coal is trading at over twice that.

Anyhow, you can see I am optimistic, perhaps overly, but it is shocking that the market seems to have genuinely no idea what is going on at BRL - and I know I've said this before, but now I have managed to put some tangible numbers behind it (and yes, for those of you who don't like to read or understand much, this includes the recent dilution of shares, and is only for BRL's equity stake, which is a totally separate entity to BT Mining, as I've already explained on multiple occasions)