Ann: Quarterly Activities Report, page-6

Net profit percentage at half year was 19.6% (excluding the fair value movements - of which largely won't occur again), while EBIDTA was 40.2%.

I am confident they can maintain around these margins for the remaining quarter (and actually margins expanded for the export division from $95 a tonne Q2 to $105 a tonne Q3 - so much for the rhetoric about a decreasing coal price!)

With BRL Equity Share sales revenue of $61m, assuming the same EBIDTA margin (and this could bea mistake as it has probably expanded if anything) EBIDTA would be $24.5m for the quarter - which looks to be about $1m less than what was indicated in the Half Year results presentation (which also contained yet another EBIDTA upgrade - an upgrade that was maintained in today's update, but either way Mr Market seems to have ignored it, again). However - this just $1m decrease, if this is true, seems to be quite outstanding (in my view) given the strikes - and if this 'disruption' hadn't occurred, BRL (well BT Mining I should say) almost certainly would have been able to book more sales through the export division.

I think this 4th quarter will be a strong one, export sales wise especially (assuming strikes don't continue to plague for another couple months) - BRL forecast what looks to be $22.5m EBIDTA (equity share) this quarter - and if they do produce $90m EBIDTA, this would indicate revenues around $225m.

A net profit (excluding fair value adjustments) is likely to be around $45m - 'even more' when you realize the financial year will only account for 10 months of the export division - yes that's right: they could nearly pay off that 'big scary' court case before the judgement is even able to be provided. Either way, the court case doesn't actually negatively impact current operations in any way - its a historical issue, going back years, and (largely) revolving around 1 word, which makes it quite intriguing from a law perspective, but quite annoying from a shareholder perspective, because it seems until this is 'case closed', Mr Market will continue to be spooked and price in a worst case scenario (the scenario meaning a dividend likely won't be paid until the case is settled either? - ah well likely a bigger special dividend on the way in the not so far future if this is the case - or just hang on for another year for a dividend, a dividend likely to be the same amount as my average buy in price).

On another note, of interest will be to watch any development regarding the part "An updated exploration plan along with a budget schedule was completed during the quarter, with access arrangements and resource consents lodged for the intended drilling programmes." - resource consents being lodged showing there is serious progress being made here. No point pricing in any upside from the Denniston assets until the resource consent is granted, and under this government, who knows if that will happen. If this consent does get granted, well my 24c fair value estimate will seem cheap.