Ann: Quarterly Activities Report, page-23

This is an excerpt from Bauxite Index market update.

Essentially Alumina products are going nuts on the sanctions, if they stick you will see spare Chinese capacity kick in to make the most of the higher prices available. Which will bring Bauxite back into equilibrium. Really nothing has happened yet but I see the fear being that we may have short-term oversupply.

With the U.S. extending its sanctions deadline on Rusal, ROW alumina prices pulled back to US$620/t FOB Australia over the week. In China, meanwhile, alumina prices surged over 10%, as some refineries positioned themselves to export alumina and take advantage of a widening price arbitrage, which we estimate could be as high as RMB1,500/t. Although several cargos of Chinese alumina have reportedly been confirmed for export, logistics, port handling and other costs are biting into margins and reducing the potential bonanza Chinese refiners are currently chasing.
Export potential saw the CMAAX North index price surge a further 13.5% over the week to RMB 3,234/t (US$510/t) and the south index price gained 11.9% to RMB 3,050/t (US$481/t).
With global alumina markets remaining in a state of virtual chaos, driven by the uncertainty surrounding the Rusal sanctions and the extended outage at Alunorte, most refinery participants in China are choosing to wait for a clearer picture of the potential impact on the market to emerge and how they may best position themselves to take advantage.