I can’t see how AMN will be able to haul the tonnages they’ve...

I can’t see how AMN will be able to haul the tonnages they’ve stated in the PFS without some serious changes to capex and/or opex.

Background:
AMN will need 3 transport legs to get their potash to port. Leg 1 is from the lake to the half-way point (the half-way point being half-way between site and Halls Creek). Leg 2 is the half-way point to Halls Creek. The third is Halls Creek to Wyndham (port).

Capex
- AMN state the first leg is 350km from site to the Tanami track. I measured it at 407km so the PFS re-designs the route 57km shorter.
- The road heads west because it must go around the sand dunes to the north of the lake so I cannot see where they will be able to reduce the route 57km but maybe they can
- They haven’t surveyed the route yet so it’s a big assumption
- Nearest town from these major earthworks is 900km away (one-way)
- The capex in the PFS only includes the 350km leg at a cost of $123 million. So no capex has been added for the 250km second leg???

Opex
- The haulage rates in the PFS don't seem feasible
- The total km's for Leg 1 and Leg 2 = 600km (based on PFS numbers)
- The PFS states that will take 9.5 hours = 63km/hr. Based on 'average speed for the whole trip' this is too fast
- Driving at an average speed for the trip of 50km/hr = 12 hours but that has maxed out the total hours for the drivers shift just in physical driving
- If they reduce the trip length another 50km it may work better (11 hours) but that’s another 50km in capex = big dollars!

I guess once they survey the route and design the road they’ll be able to update shareholders on the revised capex and opex. However, there is no mention of it in the quarterly so maybe they'll do it after the pond trials???

Three transport legs that maxes out your shift roster is not a nice position to be in but I'm sure it can be overcome