BRL 0.61% 81.0¢ bathurst resources limited.

I don't support describing BRL's share-price as a "negative...

  1. 23 Posts.
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    I don't support describing BRL's share-price as a "negative bubble", given a closing price at end-June-2017 of 9.1 cents and a share-price one year later of 15 cents.

    I also don't believe that "the market" is paying much attention (if any) to Bathurst for the time being. Roughly 450 ASX companies are covered by analysts reports from at least one brokerage or investment bank. So far no analysts - not a single one - have published research on Bathurst.

    Once the full-year results are published, that may change. But for now, no research coverage basically means no market awareness, much less market interest. So no, I don't think speculation about how costly the pending court-case may or may-not be affects pricing.

    Repeating myself, no-one is trading this counter. Daily volumes over 2 million shares during the past 6 months can be counted on the fingers of 2 hands. Of the 1.56 billion shares outstanding, more than 1.4 billion are held by less than 800 investors.

    Each of those people - call them "sophisticated investors" - has presumbly done their homework on production volumes, operating margins and the market-price for coking coal. Probably most (all ?) the remaining unconverted pref-shares are also held by those sophisticated investors. They aren't going to sell at 15 cents - even if they bought in at under 2 or 3 cents - not when the fundamentals suggest BRL is worth more.

    If there were no mis-pricing of equities . . . well, then far fewer people would trade the markets. Sometimes shares are priced too richly - Facebook circa last week, for instance ? And sometimes shares are priced incredibly cheaply relative to where they eventually move to.

    I have written here before about the market being both a voting-machine and a weighing machine. Those of us holding BRL shares can see that the evident weight appears to exceed the perceived weight. But hardly any "voters" are paying attention.

    If any of several things happen: for example, a credible investment bank or brokerage initiates coverage with a positive report; or management decides to initiate payment of a regular dividend; or production continues to motor-on at the current impressive run-rate of roughly $30 million EBITDA per quarter . . . then the share price will move - probably in a hurry.

    Some institutional investor sitting on (literally) billions of dollars of pension funds deciding that they want to own 10-15 percent of BRL for instance. Or some larger resource company deciding that they want to bid for a controlling stake. Then watch the share-price spike by a double-digit number of cents overnight.

    Meanwhile, I'm happy to continue playing a patient game. All current shareholders are sitting on latent - as yet unrealized - value, according to me. Any who disagree have the opportunity to exit now at 15 cents. Which isn't a bad outcome for a counter that was trading just above 9 cents around this time last year.

    Sign me a fan of BRL management and bullish on future prospects.
 
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Last
81.0¢
Change
-0.005(0.61%)
Mkt cap ! $155.0M
Open High Low Value Volume
80.0¢ 81.5¢ 79.0¢ $22.60K 28.12K

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
1 12578 79.5¢
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
82.0¢ 177555 3
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Last trade - 16.10pm 28/06/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
BRL (ASX) Chart
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