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and for the worst realistic average case I can see for the next...

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oneuponedown

181 Posts.

02/08/18

05:48

Post #: 34680466

Originally posted by oneuponedown ↑

Not sure if it is my computer skills or they way it is posted but I can only see as a blury screen shot.
Even on the most simple and conservative metrics for Olaroz Stage 1 alone (assuming all other assets were sold) and a PE of ~10 (which I think is a long term fair target for a company with a diminishing resources and potential for reduction in demand in >10years as no one really knows what technology will be available then) I get a minimum share price of $5 as below. I cannot see how any bears/shorts can value lower than $5.

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3

1 Comments

2 Shares outstanding 260,710,716 3B 20/06/2018

3 Share price $ 5.00 Arbitrary

4 Market Cap $ 1,303,553,580

5 Discount cash $ 227,200,000 Quarterly

6 Discount estimated sale price Borax Business $ 10,000,000 Guess

7 Discount ORE value Advantage Lithium (33.5%) $ 40,194,474 Based on Advantage share price 0.82 CAD

8 Discount Cauchari (21.25%) $ 20,097,237 guessed equivelant to 50% of Orocobres holding in advantage

9 Discount Olaroz stage 2 early works and other tenements $ 30,000,000 very conservative

10 Discount Naraha Hydroxide $ 5,000,000 Guess

11 Net Market Cap Olaroz Stage 1 only $ 976,061,869 AUD Conservative

12

13 Olaroz Stage 1 Annual Production 14,384 tonnes (Latest quarter x4)

14 Average Sales price USD 13,653.00 tonne FOB

15 COGS USD 3,800.00 Excludes royalties and corporate costs

16 Exchange Rate 0.74

17 Olaroz Gross profit $ 191,521,016 AUD per annum

18 Orocobre share (66.5%) $ 127,361,476 AUD per annum

19 Operating costs, tax, depreciation etc. $ 30,000,000 AUD per annum (wild guess)

20 NPAT $ 97,361,476

21

22 PE Ratio 10.03

Expand

and for the worst realistic average case I can see for the next 10 years for a share price of $5, lithium price US$11,000(current exchange rate 0.74) and production of 13,000Tpa. PE would be 18 as below.

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3

0 Olaroz Stage 1 Annual Production 13,000

1 Average Sales price USD 11,000.00 tonne FOB

2 COGS USD 3,800.00 Excludes royalties and corporate costs

3 Exchange Rate 0.74

4 Olaroz Gross profit $ 126,486,486 AUD per annum

5 Orocobre share (66.5%) $ 84,113,514 AUD per annum

6 Operating costs, tax, depreciation etc. $ 30,000,000 AUD per annum (wild guess)

7 NPAT $ 54,113,514

8

9 PE Ratio 18.04

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3
0	Olaroz Stage 1 Annual Production	13,000
1	Average Sales price	USD 11,000.00	tonne FOB
2	COGS	USD 3,800.00	Excludes royalties and corporate costs
3	Exchange Rate	0.74
4	Olaroz Gross profit	$ 126,486,486	AUD per annum
5	Orocobre share (66.5%)	$ 84,113,514	AUD per annum
6	Operating costs, tax, depreciation etc.	$ 30,000,000	AUD per annum (wild guess)
7	NPAT	$ 54,113,514
8
9	PE Ratio	18.04

ORE Price at posting: $4.55 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held

6 Upvote

4 Great analysis

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	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3
1			Comments
2	Shares outstanding	260,710,716	3B 20/06/2018
3	Share price	$ 5.00	Arbitrary
4	Market Cap	$ 1,303,553,580
5	Discount cash	$ 227,200,000	Quarterly
6	Discount estimated sale price Borax Business	$ 10,000,000	Guess
7	Discount ORE value Advantage Lithium (33.5%)	$ 40,194,474	Based on Advantage share price 0.82 CAD
8	Discount Cauchari (21.25%)	$ 20,097,237	guessed equivelant to 50% of Orocobres holding in advantage
9	Discount Olaroz stage 2 early works and other tenements	$ 30,000,000	very conservative
10	Discount Naraha Hydroxide	$ 5,000,000	Guess
11	Net Market Cap Olaroz Stage 1 only	$ 976,061,869	AUD Conservative
12
13	Olaroz Stage 1 Annual Production	14,384	tonnes (Latest quarter x4)
14	Average Sales price	USD 13,653.00	tonne FOB
15	COGS	USD 3,800.00	Excludes royalties and corporate costs
16	Exchange Rate	0.74
17	Olaroz Gross profit	$ 191,521,016	AUD per annum
18	Orocobre share (66.5%)	$ 127,361,476	AUD per annum
19	Operating costs, tax, depreciation etc.	$ 30,000,000	AUD per annum (wild guess)
20	NPAT	$ 97,361,476
21
22	PE Ratio	10.03

and for the worst realistic average case I can see for the next...

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