Hi Shanghai
You have included 100% production for the Sn, it should be only half this amount (MLX 50% share). Your Average case for Nifty is probably not unreasonable, however for Renision the tin quantity should be halved (I'd actually reduce to 4,000 tonnes as per Quarterly guidance) and I'd raise the spot price to AUD 24,200 (you have AUD 22,500, last quarter they sold at a realised price of AUD 24,156 (after smelter costs) and they said that spot has risen a further AUD 2,000 since then.
For the Good case, Nifty looks OK, for Renison I would reduce volume to say 4,200 tonnes (significantly higher volumes are not possible unless Rentails is developed and this will cost AUD 200 million) and I'd increase the spot price to AUD 30,000 (in my mind quite achievable given spot (net of treatment costs) is already around AUD 26,500). The AISC looks OK at $17,000.
I'd be interested to see the numbers under these scenarios.
Also, just for your info if you are not already aware, if you go to the MLX website and look under the Investor section, 'Broker Reports' you will find reports with various broker financial models etc.
(20min delay)