Had a look at three past financial reports of MLX and did some...

Had a look at three past financial reports of MLX and did some calculations.

My main conclusions:

1. Gross operational loss/profit (production * (realised price - AISC)):
- Nifty: With copper prices, costs and production rates unchanged, Nifty will continue to deliver an operational loss of about 30m per year.
- Renison: With tin prices, costs and production rates unchanged, the 50% share of Renison will continue to make an operational profit of about 30m per year.
- Total gross operational profit is thus about 0.

2. Investments and overhead costs:
All investments, corporate overhead costs and sundry expenses not reflected in AISC numbers are also about 30m per year.

3. Profitability:
Thus, all things equal, MLX will continue to produce a loss of about 30m per year.

4. Turnaround options:
MLX would break even with one of the following happens (list not conclusive):
- copper prices rise above 3.5 USD/lb (from 2.92 as of today)
- AISC at Nifty can be reduced by 17% (which should be a normal outcome of an increased production rate of, say, 34%)
- Nifty can be "sold" for nil consideration (I don't suggest that, though)
- tin prices rise above 28'000 USD/t

5. Upcoming special impacts to normal cash flow:
- Cash flow in the current quarter will likely be bolstered by 21.5m AUD of metal that has been produced but not sold (yet) in the first half year of FY 19.
- The payables exceed the receivables by 22m as of 31.12.18. This will have to be reduced at some point in time.

For details: