Agree with most that the next few quarters are critical, but the elephant in the room is MOY's recoveries
MOY just spent up big ($15M) on the sulphide expansion upgrade, which is to some degree is an untested configuration for recovering the sulphides component. They commissioned the Stage 1a of Sulphide expansion sulphide last quarter (4 months ago - June?)
Quarterly recovery for June had a recovery of 82% (averaging over >80% for last 18 months), maybe due to not processing refractory material.
Jump ahead 3 months to the September quarterly where they state "sulphide plant operating within expectations" and its their first full quarter trying to process refractory ore and their recoveries drop to 65 %, concerningly with no explanation in the quarterly.
To put into perspective going from 82% to 65% recovery for the quarter equates to dropping 4,000 ounces (~$7.5 M).
The Sept-19 quarterly states the Dec quarter will predominantly be oxide feed (non-sulphide), so recovery will likely improve in the short term, but where to after that, is the big question. If 65% recoveries is anyway indicative of what to expect with only the first Stage 1of the expansion in place I don't think they will have the grade to make it work, they need to be in the mid-high 70% at least.
Have they rolled out a mining plan in any of their announcements of late to shed some light on the ore feed for the next 6 months ?
MOY Price at posting:
6.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held