Bingo.. that's my main concern .. China Trade DealFiat money...

Bingo.. that's my main concern .. China Trade Deal

Fiat money printing plus War was just a massive bull signal for gold but the Trade deal for me is too risky to be exposed

I have looked deeply into the Goldies and I don't like to make predictions on gold price but their cost profile is increasing and everyone knows it

RRL QTRLY should be good but needs to print AISC under $1200 otherwise kiss goodbye their guidance on AISC FY20

As a result, the free cash flow, although probably right now, as good as it has ever been, is being propped by the high AUS $ gold price ..

When I saw the news that China delegation will be in USA next week to sign up I truly believe this is a major inflection point

Fiat will catch us eventually we all know it, BUT it can be man- aged if global growth is restored gradually and that is where the trade deal comes in.. In other words we can keep racking up debt if we keep increasing business

1. China signs trade deal phase 1

- means that phase 2 negotiations begin
- China GDP could stabilise
- China PMI ticks up
- US jobs pick up ( no massive misses there anyway)
- AUS $ re rates up

Fiat is maintained and in someways absurdly justified by Trump / China 'fixing' the shop

Where does this leave POG ? perhaps maintaining around these levels for sure but it signals a challenge to the bull case and in the case of Aussie gold, status quo is also challenged by Forex

The bull case for Aussie gold needs 2 X RBA rate cuts in 2020 and I admit that this is still strongly in play..

I have a bit of risk still on the table in Silver/Copper/Gold in a speccy but my outlook on the majors is a little bit cautious right now more from a sentiment perspective than company specific

RRL will keep printing money and paying divvies regardless

GLTAH