"-If we were to eliminate the the nickel pricing in turn for the...

"-If we were to eliminate the the nickel pricing in turn for the set contract conditions with Tsingshan."

The thing to understand about off-take agreements is that they almost all have pricing mechanisms that either directly or indirectly relate back to the int'l Ni spot price. There will be set contract conditions, but as far as pricing goes, the price-setting framework usually leads back to what is happening with the spot price. That's the norm. It's actually in off-take customer's interest to do this because said customer is usually a manufacturer who needs a mechanism to adjust the price of their raw inputs according to market conditions/fluctuations - especially for a metal product (Ni) in which int'l pricing discovery is so readily available (via LME/SHFE futures markets).

"-Throw some forecasts in."
The spreadsheet screenshot already includes a range of IMIP price scenarios...

NIC's SP performance is v.closely linked to the int'l spot price performance. No surprises there, imo. There will be periodic news flow from NIC in which the market will re-rate, up or down (pref up, given NIC's the forecast business growth profile) in which NIC's SP will behave beyond being purely aligned with spot price movements. In the meantime, with spot Ni showing weakness, so is NIC.

Z

PS. nice posts and analysis, @rennis. It's refreshing to see what seems to be much rarer than one might expect here on HC. (Thought a written nod was in order in addition to thumbs, which don't seem to mean much nowadays.)

PPS. NIC (relatively) recently made it onto my active watching brief list. Not holding at this stage, but that may change if/when already-committed capital becomes freed up... GLTA.