I think the AUD/USD was were it was because China’s consumption of commodities pulled Australia out of the woods of the GFC long before the US. The GFC was a liquidity crunch due to some issues really isolated to the US banking sector (who gave out delinquent property loans and had a heap of derivative products linked to these).
I think we’re in a completely different situation now. The indebtedness and slowdown is not isolated to the US this time. It’s global. Trade relationships are now fractured and people’s behaviour will change permanently.
Can central banks, governments and China again print their way out and we enter into another big commodities run that pulls the AUD out of the woods again - maybe, but I doubt it - don’t think it’s as easy as it was last cycle. And the AUD is much more susceptible to a global slowdown that most other developed nations, particularly the US economy which is a lot more robust.
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