GW1 0.00% 4.7¢ greenwing resources ltd

"Of course, it makes sense for BSM to go downstream. Graphite...

  1. 94 Posts.
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    "Of course, it makes sense for BSM to go downstream. Graphite technology is where the real money exists. Its in their agenda but they're still at the "toddler" stage of graphite production, IMO. Timmy may have his trainer wheels off after 4 years but I'm not totally convinced. "

    I totally agree with that. It seems to be the right direction to go but we simply don't know if they can do it. I have checked some older presentations and it seems that it was 'always' the plan to go downstreams. So it's not just panic out of a low margin.

    "BSM's graphite has been tested and certified as suitable for expandable graphite and Urbix would not have chosen have signed a MOU with BSM if their graphite lacked the crystallinity that it requires for high purification."

    That's a good sign. Then again, they are also just a startup. IMO this JV can go in all directions. Not sure if Covid-19 slowed them down but I believe we should hear more about that soon. It's taking a bit long. They said it will take six months to negotiate.

    "Look how long it has taken to prove that they can produce and sell quality flake graphite!"

    Has it taken really that long? In the presentations they claim there was no slowdown to go into production (on lost time, no problem in ramp up) only thing was that they didn't get the right ratio between the different flake sizes. Prices didn't help here. So again to me it looks like the management didn't fail, but didn't achieve their goal either. If they take the right learning from the first stage they should be able to deliver more accurate and probably faster. I would say Bass is de-risked compared to other juniors with just the business plan.

    " But never give BMI forecasted prices any credence. They are based on assumptions and history shows they have been wrong time and again. "
    Totally, agree on that.

    Agree!

    "Of course, higher prices will help BSM... but they will also help a lot of competitors and graphite wannabes in their quest to get into production. There are always other existing companies that can crank up production rates to fill any future shortages too."

    Fully agree! We should create a list of all players and their status. Does anybody have something like that already? Something we can compare each player in more detail.

    "Yes, their graphite has been proven suitable for the EV market. But they wouldn't have the supply volume to be able to sell direct to the EV market but would have to go through an agent."

    What you mean by they don't have the supply volume? The resource would be the biggest in the world (for large flakes) - or at least that's what bass claims.

    "4. Of course, there is a chance that BSM can reduce mining costs, but I wouldn't take that chance yet by putting money on it. Hydraulic mining using high pressure water jets is used successfully in mining but the chance of it being useful in graphite mining? That is the $64,000 question. And, BSM wouldn't have been able to put it to the test due to CoVid."

    Agree, but seems like a rather easy thing to do. Not sure if it works of course but the Bass team should be able to do it.

    "Its their processing costs that drastically require slashing, btw. The only way is to implement some sort of proprietary technology like their neighbour Tirupati have patented. It essentially increases head grade by about 50% by removing unwanted sand before it enters the screens and mills. They can actually make money from the sand as a saleable by-product too."

    That's really interesting. Do we know more about that? I need to research on that.

    5. "Expensive to mine" resources may become profitable for privately owned western companies, yes. Publicly-listed graphite projects are already finding it hard, if not impossible, to get funding. Whether graphite becomes a critical resource or not (when its actually extremely abundant), publicly-listed companies are behind-the-eight-ball. Corporate costs are the killer and investors know this fact. I see the US maybe reigniting a graphite industry... especially given the world's backing away from our reliance on China"

    To me this is like one of the strongest arguments for Bass. It's a mine that seems to have proven quality, enough resources, a more or less capable team. Almost cash flow positive (if latest tries work). There must be enough western investors ready to make strategic investments at some point in the future. I am more scared that they fail to find funding short term - but more optimistic that the west will look at Graphmada as a critical resources at some point.

    "6. The Graphmada resource is not too expensive to mine and it is a quality asset to a certain degree. But a resource is not what makes a successful company... its all the pieces of the puzzle that does. Its graphite is too expensive to process due to its low grade with the current plant size. The resource is actually hosted in soft saprolite regolith which is easily mined and at shallow depths. Its not hosted in deep hard rock so its easy dig. There are low-grade profitable graphite mines and Madagascar has been producing quality premium flake graphite for decades. Its the processing side that is impacted by the low grade. Whilst flake size is more important than grade and "Grade is Not King" because product concentrate purity can be improved... flake size cannot. However, low head grade does impact throughput. The high volume of host material having to go into the plant reduces output rates. Bass needs to counter the issue and it can be done (aka Tirupati process) but I doubt that have been able to address this on a practical level given the current CoVid restrictions."

    Very interesting again. If this is correct than the I really see that it can happen. I am aware that you guys lost trust in the management because of the frustrating four years in the past. But as a fresh investors I mainly see a crazy low market cap for fairly good resource with a team in place that (hopefully) had learned a lot in this sector. As you said, there seem to be many "what if's" and a lot can change when the price would pick up again or if it really becomes a global race to secure graphite mines. Something I believe it's very likely. I am just scared that Bass will go out of Business before that happen.

    "7. The one survival life-raft BSM has at its disposal is the financial backing of Bizzell Capital Markets. As much as one might despise the potential conflict of interest apparent, it's what will help the company get financial backing..."

    Hmm, do we have other opinions and information about that. Bass could also keep drilling and not go back into production for 2 more years (waiting for a potential shortage in graphite). I know they would not communicate this but if Bizzell has the same believe into a potential shortage in graphite it would not be wise to let Bass Metals die at this point in time. They could do that with a junior miner that has only drilled but not with an existing resource IMO. But it's possible that I see that far too optimistic. Also it will probably be a question how much liquidity they have.

    "One thing is for sure, at least the metrics and data in their DFS will be based on actual production and not just lab met tests and assumptive data."

    I just found a junior miner Blencowe Resources (https://blencoweresourcesplc.com/) same market cap but nothing in place yet. I just think since so much is already in place (and kind of de-risked) the market cap could easily be x5 higher. Unless ofc we are really standing here in front of a company that will go out of business this year because the lack of funding.

    "I don't think anyone can offer a credible opinion on their chances of getting funding without their DFS."
    That's a good sentence to end it. I agree on that. It will stand or fall with that. Do we know when it will be out. It should be before the AGM right? But this is just a guess, could be anytime before or after.

    Thanks again for your opinion.










 
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