No,
@Given14, we know nothing about the gold scenario other than a brief mention. Pure conjecture on my part... they need to get the SP up and I don't see the graphite story achieving that until all the numbers are out. Even then graphite is on the nose as much as the company itself is, so its not looking great, IMO.
Raising funds again at such a low base just to keep the lights on and themselves in jobs, means adding heaps of shares to an already fat registry. To keep the graphite dream alive they need a higher SP. CAPEX for Stage 2 which, according to the company and old broker reports, is around $20 million. And it's higher if OPEX reduction forms part of it... such as hydraulic mining.
If graphite prices continue to rise, I don't see BSM dropping the graphite venture. They seem to want to stay the course. But, as with any junior company, they can change their mind and simply state that the Graphmada has proven economically unviable, of course. My gut tells me, though, that they will kick the can along the road for as long as possible... and there's plenty of road in the graphite story to continue mining SH's pockets.
My concern is that whilst the recommissioning of the Stratmin plant and subsequent 18 mths of production provided TM with "special learnings" as per Morgan's interview.... how valuable are those teachings? Can Timmy apply those "special learnings" about juggling the metrics of flake size and purity to a different mining method and processing plant? Or are SH going to be guinea pigs once again while timelines and promises go out the window?
I just don't think that graphite production is economically suited to publicly-listed companies whose overheads far outweigh those of private ones. The supply/demand equilibrium is always a precarious one. Disruptors will always exist... the expandable graphite market is a small, niche one and suppliers of graphite are always at tbe mercy of customers due to their specific requirements.
Graphite production is difficult and I think these guys bit off more than they could chew. Theres nothing but cowboys in the ASX graphite scene... aka SYR who went in all guns blazing, producing too much too soon and killing their own market... aka WKT who went in all guns blazing, believing financiers would fall over one another to fund their project but haven't... whilst others are either still doing their best to try and get funded to no avail after up to 5 yrs OR have given up the graphite dream and turned to the most popular resource today... gold!
Can they deliver on their promises of a year ago and present a DFS before they start regurgitating the same promises at the AGM? They have given themselves an extra month to do that with tbe AGM convened 5 days before Xmas (in their hope too that it'll reduce the attendee numbers no doubt).
As the saying goes, "Time will tell"! Sure will, Doc!
