Now that this stock appears to have bottomed and reversed course in the upward direction, it might be worth looking at the numbers again.
Current DAP prices are trending up and the average price for April was US$543. DAP and MAP prices are very similar.
http://www.worldbank.org/commoditiesThe scoping study assumed an upper end in its price assumptions of only $482. Prices are currently well above the assumed price range. Using the assumed price of $482, the project NPV was estimated at US$260mill or A$335mill. MNB's 85% share is worth $285mill. Current mc is just $38mill fully diluted for options (assuming all options are exercised). If those options are all exercised, the company will receive $13mill. The company has around $7mill cash currently which should be more than enough to complete the DFS. Project capex is up to around US$28mill or A$36mill. The majority will be debt funded with strong support for the project from the International Fertilizer Development Center. I doubt there will be much more dilution after those options are exercised so the fully diluted mc of $38mill is a good number to work with. Upside from this figure to MNB's share of NPV of $285mill projects 7.5 times upside from current levels. If the NKP operation is added, I'd be surprised if the NPV doesn't increase by at least 50-100%. We will need to wait and see what additional value the NKP operation will bring but I can see more than ten times upside to the current sp based on the above and that's all at lower than April's average DAP prices (April $543 vs scoping study upper end assumption of $482) so there is significant DAP price buffer to this upside.
A share price of 50c (current project only) to 70c plus (my guess on minimum upside from NKP project potential) seems a stretch but that's what the numbers point to. The bonus is that initial production could be in less than than 12 months on this very simple, very low capex operation that has strong support from both the Angolan govt and strong financial as well as technical support from the IFDC; and it is fully permitted to proceed.
