I was estimating similar to you if coal prices hold and no unexpected cash outflows, around Sep - Oct would be debt free. I think they'll pay a dividend but despite that debt will come down. Once they're net debt neutral they could potentially pay out most of their fcf as dividends, but likely they'll start building up some cash for investments which I'm fine with as long as they are good investments.
Easily north of $2, I think it'll be closer to $600m+ ebitda for a full year at current coal prices (keeping in mind the last quarter had a lower average coal price, and they achieve lagged prices on some of their sales). Imagine if we get a proper coal bull market for a few years and new acland gets approved. This is one of my largest holdings and I'm still tempted to buy more.
NHC Price at posting:
$1.35 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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