Are you going to reply to my discussion of your profits numbers....

Are you going to reply to my discussion of your profits numbers. Or do just plan to ignore how horably wrong you were and figure don't ever admit it.

As far as KALI pointed out that you thought the footings at MT weld for Concentrate were at KAL. That no hard work has been done. that 17 of 27 months since project was started have gone by and still no licensed to do real work. I have given you my best guess on a schedule and it does work if no more problems and license is granted very soon. Seldom ate their no problems. Even heavy rains or fires are problems that need to be planned for. You cannot say I never thought of that. Its like you saying when you botched the profit estimate that a few years ago that you qualified it by saying at current production and prices. Yet when I went back and recalculated with those numbers it only brought it up to AUD 17 M from 3.9M no where close to your original crazy guess.

So instead of implying that everything is fine
Kalgoorlie
- Tracking well. EPA approving preliminary work, as seen in satellite and LYC's images, indicates anticipated full approval (hopefully soon).
- Good to see the kiln is getting ready. The size of it will make it easy to spot from orbit once delivered..!

So show me what you think the top 3 or 4 tasks are. and how they will get done in time to avoid a shut down of lamp.


Next "As we ramp up, we may soon pass $1b in yearly revenue.. the potential is.. well, 'huge' just doesn't cut it." First you use a word I hate "soon" is that in next 12 months. Maybe next 24 months. How can I discus something with no definition. Lets say 18 months max. Now i would ask you to read the CC transcript above starting with the question by Reg Spencer. They can't even keep enough people on site to reach 80% production rate. Do you think they have done anything to Raise production above 7.2 KT for NdPr Products. Now the original plan for the 10.5 M shows completion of upgrades in 2024 Do you think that is "soon". So the Q4 CC makes me think that 10.5 KG is slipping. Cap EX and G&A spending not increasing makes think little is being done. Based on this I doubt we will see any increase above 7.2 KT till late 2024.
Now La CE and Seg contribute between 2 and 5 % of revenue. I keep a running chart of this every Q. So lets look at your 1 billion number. To prevent argument I will use 10% for La Ce and Seg. or 100M. that leaves 900 M for Nd and PR products which includes NdPr. Now they have never maintained full production for an entire Q. The best was a month which they high lighted. Maintance and other things get in the way but let us say they put out 7.2 KG in a year to avoid side arguments. so 900 M divided 7.2 KT. is AUD 125 KG Doable yes in fact AUD price to day is 113 KG so we are not far away. That has to be an average price and after the big run up I expect a drop. Also Lynas does contribute to ROW supply of NdPr. Do you think their going to 7.2 might increase ROW supply lowering prices? Please look at prices from mid to March to today. The whole world thought COVID was behind us in march. Prices dropped. I think they expected Lynas to RTN to 100%, Another wave hit us and prices went up. Stabilized with a small drop, for about two weeks then AL in Q4 CC implied that no RTN to 100% this year. Prices took off. Look at NEXT announcements side by side with NdPr prices. Every major milestone achieved resulted in a drop in prices. Lynas is a major contributor. Yes much smaller than China. To assume Lynas adding supply will not lower prices is not something I would do. Cash inflows were 192M in Q4 which was great and that is 800M of your 1B. But is it sustainable? I think Q1 revenue will show you a much lower number. Still the second best in Lynas history but under 150M. I will not add any conditions but there are a few that could make me wrong. I will take my licks if they happen.
I am not a paying member of SMS so chart is a week old. CC shows up in next weeks chart. Price to day is 622 a new 8 year record.
Look forward to your defense but based on past performance I do not expect any thing substantial.