Market won´t ignore it of course. But if the market was to value McP in @ 2 million OZ reserves and an AISC held at current Regis average that would translate to an NPV in the area of AUD 1.5 billion (maybe a little less, depending on the expected time frame, on which the reserves are mined and sold and the specific AISC of course).
Regis total market value amounts to little more than that figure. So I do not see much value of McP in the current SP and the market value of Regis. The same result is reached when looking on NPV of current cash flows and valuations. Again reserves > 2 million oz and with a margin @ current gop @ over AUD 1.000/oz.
So why is the market value lower as would be inferred by a combined production expectation of Regis including McP? - Well because market participants have McP already identified as a wild-card with plenty risks such as approval or total costs/expected AISC. Still a denial would make the SP go south of course but not by the same amount it would go north once approval is reached (and projected AISC for McP stays below AUD 2.000).
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Market won´t ignore it of course. But if the market was to value...
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$4.21 |
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