Why I knew Revenue would be Down Cause 1&2
I debated with my self how to present this. start with small and build up Start with big and go down. Decided on later. Also decided to help keep it short I would only present a couple at at a time. The first and biggest reason may not happen again for a long time. Some of the things I will mention actually added to revenue. They may be a big adder or subtractor next time.
The first Item is on page 3 & 6 of Q4 report. When people have put out crazy estimates I have often told them to go look at these two pages. Page 6 REE Ready for sale 3778. Page 3 REE sold 4758 I will use rounding and say they sold 1000T more than they made in Q4. This had to come from inventory. I have tracked inventory adds and minuses for many years. There is not much left now. What price to use? Years ago I would have used Average sell price AUD 35.00. I could never figure out how to prorate NdPr and La and Ce. At least 3 years ago, probably longer, AUS came Back from one of his Lamp tours. He told me how there is no reason to finish some of La and Ce they just put it into tailings because market will not support it. I will admit at first I did not believe him. After a few days of thinking about it I realized that every day the plant is running they have surplus La and Ce. AL has told us many times that La & Ce Combined is 3 X the NdPr products. Total production is usually near 3 X NdPr At 3X, 1/3 of La & CE is being dumped. So I now believe AUS and Lynas does not go to expense of finishing more La and Ce, than they need and the unfinished goes to tailings. If the market changes Lynas management will know in lots of time. Start storing Unfinished or finished La and Ce and be ready. There may be a small amount of these in inventory to fill any last minute orders. So I have been assuming that most of the inventory sales were NdPr. ( note when I say NdPr I include pure Nd & Pr. Lynas does same thing) So what price should I use for 1000T. Page 4 says in Q4 NdPr sold for USD 68.20 no vat. or AUD 91.00. I was a little afraid of putting out a number using AUD 91 M decrease in revenue so I use the average of the two numbers AUD $65.
Next a mistake made by many That causes errors. What price to use for NdPr. AL has told us when asked about "Effect of a recent price changes" in a CC that there is at least a 90 Day delay from street price to revenue. All companies have delays, So this is nothing new. When an order is taken then it has to be scheduled, made and shipped. If you read Q2 CC when Suez canal was blocked Lynas was shipping FOB customers dock so all the shipping delay is added to the delay between street price and revenue.
Now I have a problem ASP went up from AUD 39 Q4 to AUD 44 Q1. In fact in my post
Post #:
56985803
I told Jack09090 that he was wrong saying ASP would go up. I was wrong and I owe Jack an apology. Something happened that I was unaware of. At first I thought it was the ratio of NdPr to La&Ce In fact this does clearly explain the ASP change Q1 to Q2 AUD 10.00 and Q2 to Q3 AUD 6.00 when the price of NdPr changed more Q2 to Q3. It does not work for Q4 to Q1. So for right now I have no explanation. I was just wrong. Maybe Q2 added to chart will help me, we will see. I would like any ideas even if it shows I missed something simple.
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
Column 5 |
Column 6 |
| 0 |
Q |
Total volume |
NDPR volume |
Ratio |
ASP |
NdPr price USD from Q reports |
| 1 |
Q1 2022 |
3166 |
1255 |
2.52 |
44.6 |
80.1 |
| 2 |
Q4 |
3778 |
1393 |
2.71 |
39.1 |
69.2 |
| 3 |
Q3 |
4463 |
1359 |
3.28 |
35.5 |
68.2 |
| 4 |
Q2 |
3419 |
1367 |
2.50 |
29.5 |
48.7 |
| 5 |
Q1 2021 |
4110 |
1342 |
3.06 |
19.4 |
40.8 |
| 6 |
Q4 2020 |
2579 |
775 |
3.33 |
20.2 |
33.8 |
this it for now.
(20min delay)