RRL 0.70% $1.77 regis resources limited

For FY 2021 reported quarterly AISC wereQ1 - 1.400Q2 - 1.317Q3 ....

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    For FY 2021 reported quarterly AISC were
    Q1 - 1.400
    Q2 - 1.317
    Q3 . 1.388
    Q4 - 1.249
    avg. 1.335
    Production was
    Q1 - 81.528 k
    Q2 - 91.410 k
    Q3 - 85.748 k
    Q4 - 96.829 k
    total 355.515 k

    So RRL did have slow first quarters in the past and they did announce a "soft quarter" when presenting FY2021. Lower mill feed grades and lower production at Moolart Well and effects from mill shut down at Garden Well had been anticipated /planned.
    IMO notable not-so-good news to be observed and partially to follow up on are:
    - unplanned short term operational issues at Duketon (but to be recovered over the remaining financial year)
    - increased labour turnover and COVID related personnel issues (both at Regis and Tropicana)
    - Rise in capital expenditure from 47m in Q4/21 to 77m in Q1/22 ("This was driven primarily by increased pre-strip costs, deferred waste costs and costs associated with infrastructure for the Garden Well underground at Duketon along with increased capital costs at Tropicana as the Havana cut back continued to progress and the prior quarter only included 2 months.")
    - Residual costs of 7m associated with the Tropicana acquisition (page 5 of the report) - However, I reckon those had been accued for in FY 2021.

    Also I do not like the aspect of continuing exploration costs at MCP of 17m in Q1 with government approval still pending. I would at least reflect on the fact that those expenditures might have to be written off when approval is not forthcoming.

    But I like the news and/or anticipations regarding
    - Garden Well underground (pg. 7)
    - hedge book reduced by 25k (as planned)
    - higher mill grades at Moolart well to be expected in Q3 (pg. 2)
    - To be expceted resolve of COVID-realted issues in the beginning summer months

    All in all I do not expect that RRL will meet AISC and production guidance for the whole year.
    That might be offset with the upward trend of GOP.
    Also the current SP does not reflect earings in the guidance range.
    Meaning that an underperformance (measured against guidance) is already anticipated by market and subsequently in the SP - IMO still overdoing it.
    Next EPS and PE ratio will most likely get adjusted somewhat by analysts but again that is already well (and over-)adressed in current SP.

    All in all: No change in sentiment here and wondering who is reading the announcements of RRL.
    Last edited by GermanInvestor: 26/10/21
 
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