I would like to preface this post with a disclaimer that I am holding from an average of about $2.45. Also I would like to state that I intend on buying some more in the nearish future, but I am happy to wait for the time being.
Last night I re-read this thread and the quarterly, and I think given the disclosures of the business, the result although not great was not entirely bad, and when you compare the results from this quarterly with the previous quarterly, you will see that we "should" have a very strong next few quarters, and the company should be in an extremely strong cash position from about April.
But if you compare this to the numbers below, you will see that Duketon had
- Production down about 25% on the previous quarter.
- An average of 23.4% lower grade than previous quarter.
- AISCs increased by an average of 31.6% increase in AISC
So Duketon should represent about 78% of our production figures next quarter but I expected it to perform about 30% better than this quarter - when factoring production, grades, and tonnes milled.
I am going to go out on a limb here and say I am expecting the following in the next quarter:- Quarterly gold production of around 130,000oz
- AISC of around $1,250/oz
If we can get an average realised price of $2,150/oz, we should make around $115m, less all the other non AISC stuff, and I am hopeful we bank about $60m - $80m for a total of about $280m cash and bullion.
I will go further out on a limb and say I expect the next 2 quarters to just as good, if not slightly better.
Duketon BreakdownMoolart Well- Production decreased from 19,078oz in June to 14,185oz during September quarter.
This is a 25.6% decrease.- Ore tonnes milled increased from 755kt to 785kt despite downtime for mill maintenance.
This is a 4% increase in tonnes milled.- Feed grade decreased from 0.90 g/t Au to 0.63 g/t Au.
This is a 30% drop in grade.- Recovery increased from 87.2% to 89.0%.
This is a 2% increase.- "This variability will continue until the end of Quarter 2. Once through this highly variable zone we will see head grades lift and a subsequent increase in production."
Pretty much back to normal from Jan quarter on.- AISC increased from $1,248/oz in the June quarter to $1,720/oz in the September quarter due to lower gold production.
This is a 37.8% increase in AISC.Rosemont- Production decreased from 32,319oz in June to 24,243oz in September quarter.
This is a 25% decrease.- Ore tonnes milled were 515kt.
This is a 3% increase in tonnes milled.- Feed grade decreased from 2.14 g/t to 1.59g/t.
This is a 25.7% drop in grade.- Recovery decreased from 93.7 to 91.9%.
This is a 1.9% decrease.- "These issues resulted in delays while adequate controls were put in place to manage the risk and allow access to ore. This work has now been largely completed and while it is not expected to be an ongoing issue, it is being carefully monitored as these pits are completed as planned during FY22."
- AISC increased from $1,349/oz in the June quarter to $1,868/oz in the September quarter.
This is a 38.4% increase in AISC.
Garden Well
- Production decreased from 45,432oz in June to 34,646oz in September. This is a 23.7% decrease.
- Ore tonnes milled of 925kt. This is a 10% decrease.
- Mill feed grades decreased from 1.52g/t to 1.30g/t. This is a decrease of 14.5%.
- Recoveries decreased from 90.8 to 89.8%. This is a 1.1% decrease.
- "Mill throughput was impacted by a major scheduled mill shutdown carried out during the quarter... Additional liquid oxygen capacity to be installed during Q2 is expected to improve our ability to treat more of this higher-grade material."
- AISC increased from $1,179/oz in the June quarter to $1,400/oz in the September quarter. This is an 18.7% increase in AISC.
Note: The averages below are not weighted averages. Garden Well is about the same size as Moolart Well and Rosemont combined.
Garden Well was also by far the worst performing in terms of tonnes milled at a 10% decrease vs 3.5% average decrease for the other 2.
Production at Duketon was down about 25% on the previous quarter, which was a record of 96,829oz.
14.5% - 30% lower grade ore which is an average of 23.4% lower grade than average.
AISCs increase by 18.7% to 38.4%, which is an average of 31.6% increase in AISC across Duketon.
Tropicana Note
Tropicana is going from strength to strength as the benefits from the work at Boston Shaker will continue to pay dividends next quarter. I think the amount being invested there will start to decrease, and I think we will be pleasantly surprised by an AISC of around $1,100/oz
(20min delay)