Hi Palm Frond,
Sea freight has already come off & now at US$24.76/t Brazil to China. It's as volatile as the iron ore price as both are linked!
I've done some further research including referring to the 2017 feasibility study for CIA.
During the last 5 years the Capesize rate (C3 rate) ex Brazil to China has averaged at 20% of the IODEX62% Fe iron ore price.
In other words, when 62% Fe average is US$100/t then C3 shipping rate is US$20/t. In early 2019 (just before Brazil dam collapse) the 62% Fe was at US$75/t & the Brazil to China C3 rate was US$15/t.
I can post various charts & historical records to prove this should anyone be interested.
If we use an assumed iron ore price of US$80/t in 2024 (Fosters report) then shipping Brazil to China will likely be US$16/t.
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