All good PC. My numbers are slightly different as I assume that...

All good PC. My numbers are slightly different as I assume that they always ship when they have 50Kt and that determines their revenue (so my model is quite lumpy). I'm also looking at cashflow (not just cashflow from operations). Anyway, I come up with cashflows of -$4.5M Q4 2021, +$5.0M Q1 2022, +$6M Q2 2022. By my calculations they should ship mid to late Nov, Late Jan, Mid Mar, Early May and late June. That late June revenue could easily slip into the next quarter, but anything could happen between now and then - they may revert to the smaller ships if freight costs normalise (actually that seems unlikely as the next phase will require bigger ships anyway). For now, the important thing to watch is the next shipment. Production in the Sept quarter was well below where it needs to be longer term (roughly half) and I have guessed that it improves by 4Kt per month until we reach nameplate. If the next shipment is not mid to late Nov it puts that assumption in doubt, so will be interesting to watch. If it is in that timeframe of earlier, that will be great, if not I guess it pushes the expansion phase back (not factored into any of my current calcs)