I'll just add my thoughts wrt realised prices. As you know, around 5 or 6 weeks ago, I was alone in predicting over $200m in revenue for Dec 21 qtr in this forum. I knew it would be met with scepticism, most expecting revenue would be in line with June 21qtr results or less, based partly on the idea of 3 month ave trailing prices.
However, I learned long ago Lynas pricing mechanisms are fluid and not a one size fits all approach. There are contracted and non contracted prices, contracts with and contracts without floor and ceiling prices, prices in Japan attracting a premium, in China no premium, etc.etc. When I enquired about pricing years ago, Lynas advised the published spot prices were probably the best guide, although not always accurate. In the conference call today, Amanda reinforced this by emphasising that given the current rush to secure supply, price was not of primary concern to customers. Lots of other variables involved apart from pricing so revenue prediction obviously an educated guess each quarter but using spot prices in my back of envelope calcs has served me well so far.
(20min delay)