Large flake’s strengthThe first quarter of 2022 will define the outlook for the market for larger graphite flake, according to a fifth graphite flake producer source.Some producers expect to increase their capacity, but this material will be absorbed primarily in China, where supply is tight."While most of the new capacity will continue to come from outside China, for 2022 China will remain the primary location for downstream processing. Thus the new capacities outside China would fill the non-Chinese upstream markets to some extent and the rest getting to China for further processing," Shishir Poddar, managing director of Tirupati Graphite, told Fastmarkets."Overall therefore, we can say that we expect to see the prices remaining firm and diversity of source evolving through 2022," Poddar added.Industry participants agreed that large graphite flake will remain bullish.Meanwhile, the shift in demand for large graphite flake from China to overseas sources, especially Madagascar, will continue in the near term, given the interrupted global shipping conditions and supply tightness in China.The graphite flake market has witnessed a major demand shift due to soaring freight costs from China to other suppliers since the end of 2020. The trend has developed throughout 2021 due to availability issues in China.Fastmarkets assessed the price for graphite flake 94% C, +80 mesh (+894), fob China on December 2, 2021 at $1,200 per tonne, which had surged by 18.81% from $1,010 per tonne at the start of the year. Meanwhile, the corresponding cif Europe price for +894 jumped by 39.5% to $1,395 per tonne on December 2 from the start of the year at $1,000 per tonne.At the time of writing, the latest freight costs were about $8,000 per 20ft container from Qingdao port to Rotterdam, equivalent to $400 per tonne. Meanwhile, shipment costs from Madagascar to main ports in Europe range from $50 to $90 per tonne, subject to different ports, according to one producer source outside China. This disparity in transportation costs has reduced the attraction of Chinese graphite and driven consumers towards other suppliers."We expect Chinese graphite exports to remain below 2018 peaks, with non-Chinese material continuing to gain market share in Europe, as the Chinese industry increasingly consumes greater quantities of graphite domestically. Using Germany as a proxy for Europe, the Chinese share of total German imports of graphite fell from 45% in 2018 to 37% in the first nine months of 2021, with this trend expected to continue," Bennett said.Limited availability will continue to support price for large graphite flake and the shift in demand away to the sources outside of China will be established as the "new normal", according to sources."Major refractory producers in Europe are showing interests in diversifying their sourcing channels, especially with the skyrocketing freight rates making it extremely costly to ship material from China, the traditional major supplier," a second trader source said."Despite limited growth for global refractories, we are seeing the new sector of expandable graphite triggering increasing demand for large flake graphite," the source added.
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