Briefing regarding price variations,
" Oh! Yeah. I mean, yeah, very right price is decided by Chinese simply because they supply most of the NdPr. Just one point to keep in mind, the fundamentals are unchanged. You have one year of continuous price increase and two weeks of price adjustment. So there is no conclusion to draw from two weeks drop after one year increase.And keep in mind that 30% of the NdPr supply comes from recycling. Recycling factories basically collect swaths from magnet making mainly in China and the way to make money to buy low and sell high. So at some stage all on your speculative mindset, you feel like the price might go down tomorrow you sell or you need cash for whatever reason and these days probably there are some difficulties in the Chinese economy, so you sell your inventory of extra recycling production and that is substantial.
There is not so many markets that includes 30% loop of recycled product and that offering explains the short-term variations and the discrepancy sometimes between supply demand and price trend, because simply you have the 30%, but can be accumulated when people feel like the price will continue going up and when they worry they sell the cash in and then you have the short-term a bit of oversupply that is not changing the fundamentals."
IMO, Chinese Govt policy plays more role in it. Commodity inflation like iron ore, copper, nickel, lithium, etc. has spooked Chinese economy significantly and CCP has tried everything to suppress price to maintain production, thus employment and social stability. Another factor is downstream buyer's psychology: buying when price rising; not buying when price dropping, like real estate market. But eventually, it is decided by market, especially increasingly strong demand.
Lynas Rare Earths Limited's (LYSCF) CEO Amanda Lacaze on Q1 2022 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
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