Do what you think is correct. you are absolutly correct about Lyns growth. However there are 902 M shares creating a market Cap of 8.6 M When you divide Book value, Yearly Profits and Revenue into that 8,6B you come up with very high multiples much higher than long term averages for Markets. If the multiples of 9 months ago still existed Lynas would be a $20.00 + stock to day. Maybe 40 in a couple of years. Unfortunately we may go into a recession and if we do those Multiples will drop like a rock. and SP of AUD 5.00 could happen maybe lower. So if you want to only look at Lynas then you should buy. Look at the WW market especially other green stocks and I think there is a clear sell signal.
If you want to hold through the next 5 years then you will do okay. ME I am buying stocks like the established miners with very low multiples because they always move up or stay flat in very big recession. Then I will sell and by stocks like Lynas.
Sorry but where did you get 12 PE? No profits are specified in Q reports so the profits do not change. Still about 30. You can guess at Q1 profits but don't use MIKAJ he is high and will not stand behind his guesses. There is also the very big problem with book value being only 1.2 B which results in a very large Multiplier. About 7 compared to a long term S&P average of 1.5 JMO Q3 and Q4 profits will be sales revenue 327M - Q&A and production expenses 94 M = 233M x .90 because this number is always high by about that amount. = 209M X 2 Qs = 418 M + reported profits for Q1 and Q2 were 157M = 575 M SP of 12 =10,8B MC / 575M =18, Many think stock should be at 15 then PE of 23. You use what ever stock price you think is best.
Jay I know you have a lot of MP as back up to Lynas to day the price for there concentrate is USD 67.50 Down from 95 in late April Also SMM says There has been volume restrictions on MP shipments. I think you should look at your MP. I bought more puts to day.
Light Rare Earth Separation Companies in China Unaffected by Production Cuts of US MP Mine in Marhttps://news.metal.com/newscontent/101794181/light-rare-earth-separation-companies-in-china-unaffected-by-production-cuts-of-us-mp-mine-in-marYes it was a fantastic report. Now take what you think is a good stock price and multiply by 902M shares and find MC. Now take Book value 1.2B and divide it into this number long term average for S&P is about 1.5. Now take yearly Profits and revenue and look up long term averages for ASX. As we head into recession these multiples will drop fast to there long term averages or lower depending on depth of recession. Do you still think Lynas in undervalued?
One other point In past recessions the ASX has always done much better than US indexes. This can be explained easily the ASK 200 has a dividend rate of about 3.5% of SP VS US of 1% as the SP drops the Dividend becomes an attractive investment which counteracts the Falling SP. Unfortunately this does not help Lynas. No dividend.
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