My previous post earlier today did not age well! The learned members of this forum stated that YAL mostly sells 5500 coal and not 6000 which whc mostly sells. I have updated my estimated earnings per quarter for the 5 qtrs to see how the current quarter compares with others. I have updated non operational costs for FY22 to be $650m in line with guidance. The qtr profits for FY21 do not tie back 100% to full year since there are other minor revenues and costs which I do not see as material. So my estimate EPS for Q1 FY22 is 49c compared with 51c for Q4 F21. Note the EPS for full year FY21 was 60c. I have estimate for half year and full year based on guidance. Seems like FY guidance production (lowest point) and highest cost with avg price of $258 gives EPS of $2.34. I aslo did a sensitivity at $200 average price for FY22. These are just estimates (clearly).
1 FY21 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 22 H1 FY22 estimate F22 Forecast F22 Forecast 0 2 Revenue 5404 756.8 868.6 1612 2069.1 2012.4 4351.6 9030 7000 3 Realised Price 141 88 101 155 209 258 258 258 200 4 Cost 2874 610.6 627.8 800.8 782.1 678.6 1580.7 3045 3045 5 Ebidta 2530 146 241 811 1,287 1,334 2,771 5,985 3,955 6 Shares 1320 1320 1320 1320 1320 1320 1320 1320 1320 7 EPS 0.60 -0.11 -0.06 0.25 0.51 0.50 1.05 2.34 1.24 8 9 Profit before tax 1104 -210 -116 455 931 914 1,931 4,305 2,275 10 Tax 312.432 -60 -33 129 263 259 546 1,218 644 11 NPAT 791.568 -151 -83 326 667 655 1,384 3,087 1,631 12 13 Amort 830 207.5 207.5 207.5 207.5 207.5 415 830 830 14 Finance 286 71.5 71.5 71.5 71.5 50.05 100.1 200.2 200.2 15 Non Operating 310 77.5 77.5 77.5 77.5 162.5 325 650 650 16 Tax 28.30% 28.30% 28.30% 28.30% 28.30% 28.30% 28.30% 28.30% 28.30% 17 18 Sales volume 37.5 8.6 8.6 10.4 9.9 7.8 16.87 35 35 19 Average Price 141 88 101 155 209 258 258 258 200 20 Cost 66 60 62 66 68 76 76 76 76 21 Royalties 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
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$5.20 |
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Mkt cap ! $6.721B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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10 | 26485 | 5.170 |
9 | 200556 | 5.160 |
12 | 20234 | 5.150 |
11 | 64406 | 5.140 |
8 | 50823 | 5.130 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
5.180 | 4161 | 2 |
5.190 | 13758 | 5 |
5.200 | 33555 | 11 |
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