Ann: Quarterly Activities Report, page-10

Thanks Phw1712

When the sp is weak, I like to remind myself of why I bought.
From the scoping study table below, using a MAP price assumption of only half the current MAP price, $643, this company projects ANNUAL EBITDA of U$90 million.
That is A$125 million dollars of free cash operating profit before tax, each and EVERY year once it hits full production. That is going to result in a market cap of at least around $1.25 billion. That's without the green ammonia and at just half the current fertiliser price. Add the green ammonia and we could be looking at in excess of $2.5 billion. Lindsay described the phosphate project as the small project. I think the green ammonia will be more valuable than the phosphate. $2.5billion is not just a number I made up.
Even the most bearish allowance that the whole capital amount for the phosphate project is raised at around the current low sp post DFS (highly unlikely IMO), then even that scenario results in a mc of below $120million. That leaves 20 times upside potential to the current sp. Moderately less if allowing another equity raising for the green ammonia but that will no doubt be from a much higher mc and with a large debt component given the cash flow from the phosphate and outstanding green ammonia fundamentals, with electricity prices of only 1.5-1.7c/kw, will aid debt funding. A delay to the DFS, which doesn't delay commissioning anyway, does not change the outcome.
Yes that will be a number of years down the track to full production but the current very tight fertiliser market will no doubt speed up the expansions to get to full production and the high gas prices will make new green ammonia projects so much easier to finance - especially this one at those electricity prices.
I hope investors don't fall for the current bout of down ramping. Every stock gets that. LKE was full of down ramping from below 30c and it went to nearly $3 within a year regardless. Cr's didn't stop it. When the fundamentals support a much higher sp, ignore the noise.