I've filled my boots with YAL. Sold some NHC and WHC to do so, meaning the coal weightings are now about 60:20:20 respectively for YAL:WHC:NHC.
I think there are a few reasons for the price lagging:
* Cinda selling down on market - as long as they continue, this will continue to limit share price increases. I note they have about 180 million shares left and YAL currently have a traded volume of 50 million units a month, so this could go on for a long time.
* Chinese majority shareholder
* Ridiculous take-over offer a few months ago
* Lower quality coal vs NHC and WHC - whilst this is true as a proportion of total sales, i dont think the market appreciates the sheer scale of their operations vs peers and their ability to wash and blend coal to produce higher quality spec. Latest quarterly results shows ave price $491/tn which proves this point
* Less publicity due to low liquidity - ironically this is improving with the Cinda sale and previous Glencore sale which has dramatically increased liquidity (the current trading of 50 million units a month is much higher than about 10 million units a month pre-Glencore sale)
My view is that cashflow will always win in the end. It might be frustrating at the moment, but the fundamental value is based on cash generation - and the simple table below shows the current mis-match between the coal players. YAL has the ability to generate extreme levels of cashflow in the current environment. If it is not reflected in the share price it will be given back to shareholders through huge dividends.
The crazy thing about YAL is that on an enterprise value basis (including debt), it is trading only marginally higher than 18 months ago. Back then it had net debt of $3.3 billion and market cap of about $3 billion (so EV of $6.3 billion).
Price Mkt Cap ($m) Net Cash ($m) EV ($million) Current cash generation ($m/quarter) 1 NHC $7.00 $6,574 1,000 $5,574 $750 2 WHC $ 10.80 $ 10,364 2,000 $8,364 $1,500 3 YAL $5.80 $7,659 1,000 $6,659 $1,900
I've filled my boots with YAL. Sold some NHC and WHC to do so,...
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 69 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Add YAL (ASX) to my watchlist
 (20min delay)
|
|||||
|
Last
$7.33 |
Change
0.070(0.96%) |
Mkt cap ! $9.678B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $7.28 | $7.40 | $7.26 | $16.76M | 2.287M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1729 | $7.30 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $7.34 | 1000 | 1 |
View Market Depth
| Last trade - 16.10pm 05/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
| YAL (ASX) Chart |